It’s possible the streak could end in November, when Maine, Maryland, Minnesota and Washington state are likely to have closely contested gay marriage measures on their ballots.

For now, however, there remains a gap between the national polling results and the way states have voted. It’s a paradox with multiple explanations, from political geography to the likelihood that some conflicted voters tell pollsters one thing and then vote differently.

“It’s not that people are lying. It’s an intensely emotional issue,” said Amy Simon, a pollster based in Oakland, Calif. “People can report to you how they feel at the moment they’re answering the polls, but they can change their mind.”

California experienced that phenomenon in November 2008, when voters, by a 52-48 margin, approved a ban on same-sex marriage in the state constitution. A statewide Field Poll that September indicated Proposition 8 would lose decisively; an updated poll a week before the vote still showed it trailing by 5 percentage points.

California is an unusual case. It’s one of a few reliably Democratic states that have had a statewide vote rebuffing same-sex marriage. The vast majority of the referendums have been in more conservative states, which have a greater predilection for using ballot measures to set social policy. The 32 states that have rejected gay marriage at the polls make up just over 60 percent of the U.S. population.

Voters in liberal states such as Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York, where gay marriage was legalized by judges or legislators, might vote to affirm those decisions but haven’t had the opportunity.

Most of the states that voted against gay marriage did so between 2004 and 2008. Since then, only Maine in 2009 and North Carolina on May 8 have rebuffed same-sex marriage in referendums, while legislatures in Washington state, Maryland, New Jersey, Hawaii, New York, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Illinois and Delaware have voted for same-sex marriage or civil unions.

In all, there are now six states with legal same-sex marriage and nine more granting gay and lesbian couples broad marriage-style rights via civil unions or domestic partnerships. Together, those 15 states account for about 35 percent of the U.S. population.

Over the past year, there’s been a stream of major national polls indicating that a majority of people support same-sex marriage. According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday, 53 percent of those questioned say gay marriage should be legal, a new high for the poll, while 39 percent, a new low, say it should be illegal.

Political consultant Frank Schubert, a leading strategist for campaigns against same-sex marriage in California and elsewhere, said such polls are misleading and he asserted that same-sex marriage would be rejected if a national referendum were held now.

“The pollsters are asking if same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal, and that phrasing is problematic because it implies some government sanction against same-sex couples,” Schubert said. “People want to be sympathetic to same-sex couples, so polls that use that language aren’t particularly useful.”

The more useful question, Schubert said, is whether marriage should be defined as the union of a man and a woman — the gist of the constitutional amendments approved in 30 states.

“If you ask that question, you get strong majorities,” Schubert said.

Mark DeCamillo, director of the Field Poll in California, agreed with Schubert that same-sex marriage probably would lose in a hypothetical national referendum now. One important factor, he said, is whether there would be more intensity among supporters or opponents.

In California, same-sex marriage has such overwhelming support today that Prop 8 almost certainly would be overturned if a new state referendum were held, DeCamillo said.

The latest Field Poll, in February, measured voter approval of gay marriage among registered California voters at 59 percent, which was the highest in 35 years of polling on the issue, while only 34 percent disapproved. In the first Field Poll on the topic, in 1977, 59 percent opposed gay marriage and 28 percent were in favor.

Nonetheless, the largest gay-rights group in the state, Equality California, remains cautious and isn’t yet ready to begin a campaign to overturn Prop 8. A federal court has struck down the law, but that ruling has been appealed.

“We aren’t confident that the level of support is stable enough to withstand the rigors of a referendum,” said spokeswoman Rebekah Orr. “We know that people are conflicted. Their intellectual position can show up in a poll and their emotional position shows up in the voting booth.”

California is among 30 states where voters have approved amendments limiting marriage to unions of one man and one woman. In Hawaii, voters passed an amendment in 1998 empowering the Legislature to ban gay marriage, which it proceeded to do. The ban remains in effect, though Hawaii lawmakers approved civil unions last year.

The other statewide vote was in Maine in 2009, when 53 percent of the voters overturned a law that would have legalized same-sex marriage.

The issue is back on Maine’s ballot for Nov. 6, with voters getting another chance to approve same-sex marriage. Schubert, who is advising gay-marriage opponents in Maine, depicts it as the toughest contest for his side among the four statewide elections this fall.

In Minnesota, voters will be deciding whether to approve a gay-marriage ban similar to those in the other 30 states. In Maryland and Washington, assuming enough valid signatures are gathered by gay marriage opponents, there will be ballot measures seeking to overturn same-sex marriage laws passed by legislators this year.

However those four referendums turn out, there’s widespread belief among gay rights activists and many pollsters that support for same-sex marriage will continue to grow nationwide.

“The numbers are inexorably moving in one direction,” said DeCamillo. “Older folks, who are more in opposition, are dying out and younger folks are more inclined to support it. It’s not rocket science.”

He said support for gay marriage is surging in California among young Latinos and Asian-Americans. Nationally, according the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, support has risen among blacks since President Barack Obama’s endorsement of same-sex marriage on May 9.

Phyllis Watts, a consulting psychologist from Sacramento, Calif., has worked with several recent ballot-measure campaigns, including the failed effort to defeat Prop 8 in California and a successful drive last year to defeat an anti-abortion “personhood” measure in Mississippi.

She believes a statewide vote in favor of same-sex marriage is likely to come soon. But she suggests that any particular poll should be viewed with caution.

“People are in a fluid state around same-sex marriage. They really can feel one way one day and another way another day,” she said. “I don’t think the polls are able to track, with a level of nuance, what’s actually occurring inside people’s hearts.”

The California Primary Election is Tuesday, June 5, 2012, and CBS13 has compiled a Voter Resource Guide to help voters prepare for the June ballot.

The guide includes:
General Election Resources
Prop. 28 Resources
Prop. 29 Resources
County Election Resources

General Election Resources
Watch Previous Republican Primary Debates
California Secretary of State: Elections and Voter Information
Look Up Your Polling Place
Project Vote Smart
Fact Check
The California Voter Foundation
Election Protection
Smart Voter

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June 2012 Statewide Ballot Measures
Proposition 28
Limits on Legislators’ Terms in Office
If passed, the initiative will amend the constitution by reducing term limits from 14 years to 12 years that anyone may serve in the state legislature. The person may serve a total of 12 years either in the Assembly, the Senate, or a combination of both; and only applies to legislators elected after the measure is passed.

Yay or Nay: Visit the Websites
Yes on 28
Note: Yes On 28 does not have a campaign video.
According to the Website: Proposition 28 is a simple reform that will help make our Legislature more accountable. It closes the loophole that allows legislators to serve up to nearly 17 years. It mandates a hard lifetime limit of 12 years, which can be served in the Senate, the Assembly, or a combination of both. No current or former legislator can extend their time in office because of Proposition 28.

No on 28

According to the Website: Proposition 28 is a complete and total SCAM. The proponents of the measure are longtime opponents of term limits who have long wanted to roll back California’s voter-approved legislative term limits. When you clear away all of the misleading and dishonest rhetoric, Prop. 28 increases the number of terms one can serve in the Assembly from three to six, and in the State Senate from two to three.

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Proposition 29
Imposes Additional Tax on Cigarettes for Cancer Research
If passed, the initiative will impose an additional five cent tax on each cigarette distributed, or $1.00 per pack, and an equivalent tax increase on other tobacco products, to be deposited into a special fund for cancer research, research facilities focused on detecting, preventing, treating, and curing cancer, heart disease, emphysema, and other tobacco-related diseases, and to finance prevention programs.

Yay or Nay: Visit the Websites
Yes on 29

According to the Website: A yes vote on Prop. 29 supports cancer research, saving lives, and keeping kids from smoking. A no vote will support Big Tobacco.

No on 29

According to the Website: Prop. 29 is a flawed and poorly drafted measure that would create a new unaccountable state bureaucracy filled with political appointees.

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County Elections
Click on your county below to see what candidates are running for office in your area and what local measures are being voted on.

Amador County
Calaveras County
Colusa County
El Dorado County
Nevada County
Placer County
Plumas County
Sacramento County
San Joaquin County
Sierra County
Solano County
Stanislaus County
Sutter County
Tuolumne County
Yolo County
Yuba County

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SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — A new poll finds that voter support for a $1 per-pack tax hike on cigarettes is dropping quickly.

The Public Policy Institute of California released its findings Wednesday. It found that 53 percent of likely voters say they will vote yes on Proposition 29 during the June 5 primary, while 42 percent are opposed.

That’s a drop from 67 percent support in March, before an opposition campaign funded by tobacco companies began airing commercials.

The poll also surveyed voters about the other ballot initiative, which seeks to modify legislative term limits. It found 62 percent of voters support Proposition 28, while 29 percent are opposed.

The poll surveyed 894 likely voters in English and Spanish from May 14-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.

SACRAMENTO (CBS13) – First it was the state, and now it’s the city of Sacramento considering adding a sales tax increase to make up for sagging revenues.

The city has released a survey it says shows support for the idea.

From a quarter-cent to a half-cent, you might think it makes no sense.

“It’s already high,” one resident complained on Tuesday.

Sacramento’s mayor says it’s not a great idea, but other council members say it may be the way to go.

A half-cent sales tax would eliminate the city’s current $15.7 million debt by raising $26 million each year

But another tax when the state is already asking us to pony up?

“I think we pay enough in tax,” one citizen said.

That is why you might be surprised at this city-issued survey asking 800 voters if they’d support a sales tax increase.

For a quarter-cent sales tax increase, 71 percent said yes, and 68 percent said they’d support a half-cent increase.

“Was i surprised? A little bit given what’s going on at the state level,” Councilmember Darrell Fong said.

Fong says he’d consider supporting a general sales tax increase but says he needs to talk with more voters.

If he talked with the ones CBS13 ran into Tuesday night, he might not be so sure about that survey.

“I would probably not be in favor of paying more,” one said.

“I think they ought to cut the budget and not raise our taxes any more,” another said. “I think they’re high enough.”

But with the city’s coffers hardly full, some feel it’s an option worth looking into:
“I think people in the city know we’re pretty much cut to the bare bone,” Fong said.

If the council wants to get this on the november ballot, it will have to take action by July 24.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Gov. Jerry Brown is pitching his proposal to raise the state sales and income taxes to an audience that traditionally opposes tax increases — members of the California Chamber of Commerce.

The Democratic governor wants voters to approve the temporary increases in November as part of what he described as a series of steps to help California recover from the recession without deeper cuts to education and social services.

Brown, who was elected governor the first time in 1974, told the chamber’s annual gathering in Sacramento on Tuesday that he is looking forward to his “third act” when economic conditions have improved.

His speech, before about 1,000 business leaders, drew a mixed reaction. The level of government spending and the cost of public employee pension benefits remain concerns.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.

LONDON (AP) — A Channel Islands online auction house has angered Ronald Reagan’s foundation by claiming to offer a vial that once contained his blood.

The PFCAuctions house says the vial contains some of Reagan’s dried blood residue. The auctioneers say it was used by the laboratory that tested Reagan’s blood when he was hospitalized after a 1981 assassination attempt in Washington.

Officials at the Ronald Reagan Foundation in California have told BBC News that the sale is despicable.

Auction house spokeswoman Kylie Whitehead told The Associated Press that the blood is being sold by a man whose late mother took it from the laboratory with permission weeks after the tests were made.

Bidding for the vial had passed the 7,000-pound ($11,000) mark Tuesday.

Reagan required emergency surgery after he was shot by John Hinckley Jr. outside the Washington Hilton Hotel.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.