By Abraham Gutierrez
Prior to the Raiders-Browns (NFL Week 3) showdown in the Forrest City, ATS trends suggest that Cleveland should defeat Oakland by at least a field goal and a safety, and that these clubs will combined to score less than the OVER/UNDER mark of 43 (total) points. That’s the very first thing one can infer with just a quick glance at the head-to-head stats against the spread, as the favorite is 4-0 in their last four ATS meetings, Oakland is 1-7 in its last eight ATS contests with Cleveland, and the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 during that span.
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Having that said, statistics and trends can only take one so far in the National Football League. And for this game in particular, all indications are that bettors are overlooking probabilities and odds, instead following their gut more so than any mathematical figure.
General ATS Consensus
Truth is that most folks appear to believe that the Raiders will ride the momentum generated by their win over the Ravens to go into FirstEnergy Stadium, and either stun the Browns, or worst-case scenario lose by less than four points. This is evident by the fact that 53 percent of all wagers favors an underdog cover at +4, compared to pro-Browns (-4) action, which accounts for only 47 percent in this category.
As far as the O/U is concerned, data shows that the great majority of the betting public believes defense will not be a factor. As of Thursday morning, 64 percent of all wagers have been registered for the OVER, while only 36 percent of bettors believe otherwise.
Raiders ATS Trends To Consider
Pro-Raider bettors would be glad to know that there’s plenty of evidence to suggest taking the visitors isn’t such a bad idea. In particular, there’s the fact that Oakland is 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five Week 3 games, and 4-1 ATS after the Raider defense surrenders more than 30 points the week prior.
But not everything is “peaches” for the Silver and Black in Week 3. To no one’s surprise, there are plenty of red flags in this matchup, beginning with the Raiders’ record in their last 57 games against the spread, which currently stands at a whopping 18-38-1. This team also has shown a tendency to underperform following a straight-up win, coming in with a 1-8-1 mark in those instances, and are winless in their last 4 games after scoring 30 points or more their previous time out.
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Browns ATS Trends To Consider
As far as the betting favorites are concerned, bettors should be encouraged by a number of ATS trends: There’s the Dawgs’ 5-0-2 ATS record after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, their 5-1-1 mark in their last seven September games, their 6-2 tally after their “D” surrenders more than 350 total yards, and finally, the success Mike Pettine’s team has enjoyed in their last 15 Week 3 ATS games, which equals 9-4-2. The last bit of information bettors should be made aware of are both teams’ OVER/UNDER trends, which go as follows:
Raiders O/U Trends
Over is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Over is 6-0 in their last 6 games against AFC foes.
Browns O/U Trends
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 games following an SU win.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 games in September.
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 games following an ATS win.
Under is 8-1 in the last 9 games on grass.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 home games.
2015 NFL Week 3 Picks: Oakland Raiders +4
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Abe Gutierrez’s (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.