So this is rock bottom for Tiger Woods, right? This is the point at which Tiger Woods begins to fade away as a challenger to win any major ever again, right? Currently Tiger Woods is +13, eleven strokes behind the projected cut for the US Open at Chambers Bay GC in University Place, Washington. There are 156 different golfers competing and Tiger is T152. On day one Tiger had one birdie, 8 bogies and a triple bogey in 18 holes finishing with a first round score of 80. Only Rickie Fowler (81) and Rich Berberian Jr. (83) finished worse than Tiger on day one.

Only once in the past nine majors has Tiger finished in the top 10. (T6 at the Open Championship in 2013)

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Tiger tied for fourth in 2011’s Masters Tournament. Since then here’s an idea of how he’s fared in major tournaments since.

 

  • 2011 US Open: DNP
  • 2011 Open Championship: DNP
  • 2011 PGA Championship: Missed Cut
  • 2012 Masters: T40
  • 2012 US Open: T21
  • 2012 Open Championship: T3
  • 2012 PGA Championship: T11
  • 2013 Masters: T4
  • 2013 US Open: T32
  • 2013 Open Championship: T6
  • 2013 PGA Championship: T40
  • 2014 Masters: DNP
  • 2014 US Open: DNP
  • 2014 Open Championship: 69th
  • 2014 PGA Championship: CUT
  • 2015 Masters: T17
  • 2015 US Open: CUT

 

So that’s 3 tournaments out of 17 that Tiger has finished in the top ten… that’s the same amount of cuts he’s missed.

The worst part for Tiger is the memories at his peak from 2000-2006. We remember that from 2000 to 2006 Tiger won 10 of the 27 major tournaments he played in. To put into perspective how great that is, understand that only three golfers in the history of the game have won more than nine majors. Tiger had the greatest run a professional golfer has ever had in that time, period. Now we want that person to return so badly we continue to watch even when he clearly isn’t close to the same player.

Now, maybe you want to remember Tiger at his peak and assume that he’ll get back to some sort of winning, even if it’s only once in a while. After all, Jack Nicklaus won his final major at the age of 46. Why can’t Tiger? Why can’t he summon the magic one more time?

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The answer, like any other sport, is how many miles Tiger already has on the tires.

On December 30th, 2015 Tiger Woods turns 40 years old. That statistic matters. Since 1960 (When Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer began their dominance) only 16 different golfers won a major at the age of 40 years old or older. That’s 16 out of a possible 221 opportunities, breaking down to a 7.2% chance. That’s not good.

Yes, you can win over the age of 40 but it’s extremely rare. Of the 16 golfers who won over the age of 40, only 6 of those same 16 won before the age of 30, which Tiger Woods also did. Only Jack, Gary Player, Raymond Floyd, Lee Trevino, Hale Irwin and Ernie Els won on the front side of 30 and the back side of 40. That’s not good either.

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Those are the odds that Tiger is working with if he wants to win just one more major, never mind winning five more and passing Jack for the most majors ever. Tiger is one of the greatest golfers we’ve ever seen but he needs to win soon because every year without a major his odds of winning get smaller and smaller.